The FORECAST Study is an observational cohort study looking at two cohorts of patients presenting with COVID-19: a general public cohort, aiming to investigate if new loss or reduced sense of smell and/or taste are early signs of COVID-19 and a hospital cohort, which will investigate if taste/smell changes can predict the clinical course of a COVID-19 infection.
The FORECAST Study is an observational cohort study looking at two cohorts of patients
presenting with COVID-19: a general public cohort, aiming to investigate if new loss or
reduced sense of smell and/or taste are early signs of COVID-19 and a hospital cohort, which
will investigate if taste/smell changes can predict the clinical course of a COVID-19
infection.
The main of objective of this study is to investigate whether loss/or reduced sense of smell
and/or taste in the absence of fever and/or persistent cough are indicative of Coronavirus
Infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. In addition, the study aims to investigate
whether loss/or reduced sense of smell and/or taste precede the development of fever and
persistent cough in people with COVID-19 infection and also whether loss of/reduced sense of
smell and/or taste changes can be used to predict the clinical course of the disease.
General public FORECAST: Participants over the age of 18 will be sent a text message invite
through participating GP practices' patient messaging systems. This will direct participants
to a website (hosted by Dendrite Clinical Systems) where study subjects will find the
participant information sheet, screening checks and consent form. Enrolled participants will
complete an online questionnaire containing questions about smell and taste changes, as well
as other symptoms of COVID-19. Participants will then be sent a near-patient rapid antibody
test kit for COVID-19 to be undertaken only under medical supervision. Participants will be
booked for a video conference appointment with either a doctor or nurse and the screening
test will be performed under medical supervision. The outcome of the test will be documented,
discussed with the patient and appropriate advice given. Four weeks after completing the
first questionnaire participant will be sent an email and / or text message asking them to
complete a second questionnaire.
This second questionnaire will contain questions about resolution of smell/taste symptoms and
other symptoms of COVID-19. In case COVID-19 positive patients are subsequently admitted to
hospital as a result of COVID-19, consent will be obtained to collect information on the
outcome of the admission from discharge letter via GP. The data obtained will be analysed to
determine if smell/taste symptoms alone are indicative of COVID-19 infection, whether
smell/taste symptoms are early symptoms fo COVID-19 infection and whether smell/taste changes
can be used to predict the clinical course of COVID-19 disease.
Hospital FORECAST: clinical records of patients admitted to University College London
Hospital (UCLH) and the Whittington Hospital as a result of COVID-19 will be reviewed. The
clinical notes of COVID-19 positive patients where absence or presence of smell/taste changes
have been documented will be selected for review. Anonymised clinical data will be collected
about symptoms on admission, the course of illness and outcomes. The study primary outcome
will be to compare case fatility rate in COVID-19 postivite with documented history of
loss/reduced sense of smell and/or taste compared to COVID-19 postive with documented history
of no loss/reduced sense of smell and/or taste. The study will investigate whether
loss/reduced sense of smell and/or taste can predict the course of illness and outcomes in
COVID-19.
Other: General Public cohort
No intervention is being tested
Other Name: Hospital cohort
General public FORECAST cohort: Participants will confirm their eligibility on the online
form by confirming they meet the following inclusion and exclusion criteria:
Inclusion Criteria:
- Age over 18 years;
- Able to read and write English;
- Access to a computer or smartphone with internet access and ability to access video
calling;
- Willingness to undertake a COVID-19 screening test;
- Willingness for their GP to be informed of their participation in the study.
Exclusion Criteria:
- Pre-existing smell or taste impairment of longer than 6 weeks duration;
- People lacking capacity.
Hospital FORECAST cohort: The patient records to be included in this part of the study will
be selected by a healthcare professional based on the following inclusion and exclusion
criteria
Inclusion Criteria:
- Admitted to hospital due to COVID-19 and documentation of either presense or absence
of loss/reduced sense of smell and/or taste.
Exclusion Criteria:
- Changes in smell and/or taste either present or absent not documented.
- Admission due to other reason with later diagnosis of COVID-19 as an inpatient.
- Incomplete medical records.
- Patients with longstanding pre-existing smell and/or taste impairment.
University College London Hospital
London, United Kingdom
GP Practices
London, United Kingdom